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2014 On Track To Be Warmest Calendar Year As NOAA Reports Hottest 12-Months On Record

 

We have just had the warmest 12 months ever recorded for global average surface temperatures and 2014 is on course to be the warmest calendar year on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. NOAA has released data showing that September 2014 was the warmest September in its records and that the period January through September 2014 was the warmest first nine months of any year in its records which date back to 1880. “The first nine months of 2014 (January–September) tied with 1998 as the warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F). If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest calendar year on record. The past 12 months— October 2013–September 2014 —was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average," stated NOAA in its report on the September global climate. NOAA reported a global average surface temperature anomaly to the 20th century average temperature of 0.72C for the month of September. The NOAA announcement confirms data released by NASA showing that September 2014 was the warmest September that it has on record and that the period from April to September was the warmest six month period in its entire surface temperature time series. Data from the Japan Meteorology Agency also confirms that September 2014 was the warmest recorded September and showed that the period March through August was the warmest such period in its surface temperature time series which dates back to 1891. This graphic shows NOAA's global surface temperature anomaly map for September. Graphic courtesy: NOAA. Report  here.

 

 

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Sea Level Rise Worst Case Scenario Is 1.8m Increase By 2100 With 5 Per Cent Probability

 

Graphical representation of the full uncertainty in the sea level projections over the 21st century. It is found that there is 95% certainty that sea level rise will not exceed 1.8m this century (red). Darker purple shows the likely range of sea level rise as projected in the IPCC fifth assessment report under a scenario with rising emissions throughout the 21st century (known as RCP8.5). This important result from an international team published in paper in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters puts an upper limit on one of the major issues of uncertainty related to climate change. The paper, entitled "Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100", estimates the probability of a 1.8m rise being reached or exceeded at around 5 per cent. Courtesy: Aslak Grinsted, NBI. Full story here.

 

 

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Climate Scientist Michael Mann Warns That Earth Is In Danger Of Becoming A "Different Planet"

 

Climate scientist Michael Mann warns that we are in danger of finding ourselves living on a “different planet” heated to extremes by global warming as a result of human-caused climate change in a video of a presentation given by the Pennsylvania State University professor and that has been made available online. Mann, who is the originator of the controversial “Hockey Stick” historic temperature graph, speaks about climate science and about the politicisation of climate in the video which was recorded at a lecture he presented to the UK-based Cabot Institute in Bristol on 23 September. Image courtesy: Michael Mann and the Cabot Institute. See the video here. Read our report here.

 

 

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Research Suggests That Tornado Numbers Not Increasing But They Are Clustering More

 

Are tornadoes in the US increasing? Not really, the number has remained relatively constant. What is changing is that there are fewer days with tornadoes each year, but on those days there are more tornadoes, according to new research published in the journal Science. NOAA researchers looked at records of all but the weakest tornadoes in the United States from 1954 to 2013 for the study, “Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.” They found that although there are fewer days with tornadoes, when a tornado does occur, there is increased likelihood there will be multiple tornadoes on that day. A consequence of this is that communities should expect an increased number of catastrophes, said lead author Harold Brooks, research meteorologist with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory.The figure shows that from 1953 to 2013, the trend has been toward clusters of several tornadoes on fewer days each year. Black squares show one tornado that is rated EF1 or greater on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and red squares show there were more than 30 tornadoes rated EF 1 or higher. Courtesy: NOAA Full story here.

 

 

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